Putting our money where our mouth is.
Model projections vs. the sharp books and Kalshi, every game day — every play graded and published.
We judge the model by CLV — did the play beat Pinnacle's closing line? — not by win–loss, until there are 50+ graded plays. A win–loss record over a dozen plays is noise. Model plays and price plays are scored separately because price plays buy a number off the line on purpose.
| Sport | System | W–L–P | Units | Avg CLV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CFB | Model plays (vs market line) · paper | 81–65–1 | +8.34 | +0.259 | |
| CFB | Model moneyline · paper | 1–0–0 | +1.27 | -0.001 | |
| CFB | Price plays (Kalshi vs market) · paper | 46–57–0 | +7.98 | -2.150 | |
| CFB | all systems · CLV split | 128–122–1 | +17.60 | model +0.257 (148) · price -2.150 (103) | |
| NFL | Model plays (vs market line) | 27–25–0 | -1.10 | +0.240 | |
| NFL | Price plays (Kalshi vs market) | 13–15–0 | +0.32 | -1.107 | |
| NFL | all systems · CLV split | 40–40–0 | -0.78 | model +0.240 (52) · price -1.107 (28) | |
Avg CLV is in points vs Pinnacle's close. Price plays sit off the line by design, so read their CLV row as a price check, not a point edge.
| Kick (PT) | Matchup | Flags | Final | Model line | Pinnacle line | Δ (home) | Line move | Kalshi spread (home · away) | Home win% | Model score | Model total | Pinnacle total | Δ total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunday, October 18 · Week 6 · 12 games | ||||||||||||||
| Sun 10/18 6:30 AM | Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars | — | 34–31 | JAC -3.6 | JAC -2.5 | +1.1 | JAC -3.0 → JAC -2.5 against | JAC -2.5 @52¢ · HOU +2.5 @49¢ | 61% | 21–24 | 45 | 42 | +2.6 | |
| Sun 10/18 10:00 AM | New York Jets @ New England Patriots | — | 19–26 | NE -6.0 | NE -7.5 | -1.5 | flat | NE -7.5 @48¢ · NYJ +7.5 @53¢ | 67% | 18–24 | 42 | 42 | -0.5 | |
| Sun 10/18 10:00 AM | New Orleans Saints @ New York Giants | modelA New York Giants +1.5 @53¢ ✗ | 34–27 | NYG -3.0 | NO -1.0 | +4.0 | flat | NYG +1.5 @54¢ · NO -1.5 @47¢ | 59% | 21–24 | 46 | 46 | -0.4 | |
| Sun 10/18 10:00 AM | Pittsburgh Steelers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers | modelA Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2.5 @49¢ ✗ | 26–19 | TB -1.6 | PIT -2.5 | +4.1 | flat | TB +2.5 @51¢ · PIT -2.5 @50¢ | 55% | 22–23 | 45 | 38 | +6.3 | |
| Sun 10/18 10:00 AM | Chicago Bears @ Atlanta Falcons | modelB Atlanta Falcons +3.5 @56¢ ✗priceB Chicago Bears -1.5 @48¢ ✓ | 31–23 | PK | CHI -1.0 | +1.0 | CHI -3.0 → CHI -1.0 with us | ATL +1.5 @52¢ · CHI -1.5 @49¢ | 50% | 22–22 | 45 | 52 | -6.9 | |
| Sun 10/18 10:00 AM | Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts | priceB Tennessee Titans +6.5 @47¢ ✓ | 26–20 | IND -8.4 | IND -6.5 | +1.9 | IND -7.0 → IND -6.5 against | IND -6.5 @51¢ · TEN +6.5 @50¢ | 73% | 19–28 | 47 | 44 | +2.6 | |
| Sun 10/18 10:00 AM | Carolina Panthers @ Philadelphia Eagles | modelB Philadelphia Eagles +3.5 @51¢ ✗ | 25–14 | PHI -2.2 | CAR -3.0 | +5.2 | PHI -1.5 → CAR -3.0 against | PHI +3.5 @54¢ · CAR -2.5 @56¢ | 57% | 22–24 | 47 | 39 | +7.7 | |
| Sun 10/18 10:00 AM | Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns | — | 10–13 | BAL -2.5 | BAL -3.0 | +0.5 | BAL -4.5 → BAL -3.0 with us | CLE +3.5 @53¢ · BAL -2.5 @57¢ | 43% | 24–21 | 45 | 40 | +5.8 | |
| Sun 10/18 1:05 PM | Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams | modelA Arizona Cardinals +13.5 @53¢ ✓ | 18–16 | LAR -7.0 | LAR -13.5 | -6.5 | flat | LAR -13.5 @47¢ · ARI +13.5 @54¢ | 70% | 19–27 | 46 | 52 | -5.5 | |
| Sun 10/18 1:25 PM | Los Angeles Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs | priceA Los Angeles Chargers +8.5 @51¢ ✗ | 6–22 | KC -6.2 | KC -8.0 | -1.8 | flat | KC -7.5 @50¢ · LAC +8.5 @56¢ | 68% | 17–23 | 41 | 42 | -0.9 | |
| Sun 10/18 1:25 PM | Buffalo Bills @ Las Vegas Raiders | priceB Las Vegas Raiders +7.5 @61¢ ✓ | 33–30 | BUF -3.1 | BUF -4.5 | +1.4 | flat | LV +4.5 @50¢ · BUF -4.5 @51¢ | 41% | 27–24 | 51 | 54 | -2.8 | |
| Sun 10/18 5:20 PM | Dallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers | — | 13–23 | GB -1.9 | GB -1.0 | +0.9 | DAL -1.0 → GB -1.0 with us | GB -1.5 @48¢ · DAL +1.5 @53¢ | 56% | 23–25 | 49 | 54 | -4.6 | |
| Monday, October 19 · Week 6 · 1 game | ||||||||||||||
| Mon 10/19 5:15 PM | Washington Commanders @ San Francisco 49ers | modelB San Francisco 49ers -7.5 @50¢ ✗priceA Washington Commanders +6.5 @44¢ ✓ | 17–23 | SF -10.0 | SF -7.5 | +2.5 | flat | SF -7.5 @47¢ · WAS +7.5 @54¢ | 77% | 20–30 | 50 | 52 | -1.6 | |
| Thursday, October 22 · Week 7 · 1 game | ||||||||||||||
| Thu 10/22 5:15 PM | New England Patriots @ Chicago Bears | modelB New England Patriots +3.5 @55¢ ✗ | 24–30 | PK | CHI -3.0 | -3.0 | flat | CHI -2.5 @55¢ · NE +3.5 @56¢ | 50% | 22–22 | 44 | 50 | -6.4 | |
| Sunday, October 25 · Week 7 · 9 games | ||||||||||||||
| Sun 10/25 6:30 AM | Pittsburgh Steelers @ New Orleans Saints | — | PIT -2.0 | PIT -3.0 | +1.0 | PIT -2.5 → PIT -3.0 against | NO +3.5 @54¢ · PIT -2.5 @57¢ | 44% | 25–23 | 47 | 44 | +3.2 | ||
| Sun 10/25 10:00 AM | Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers | — | CAR -1.9 | CAR -3.5 | -1.6 | flat | CAR -3.5 @43¢ · TB +3.5 @58¢ | 55% | 22–23 | 45 | 45 | -0.1 | ||
| Sun 10/25 10:00 AM | New York Giants @ Houston Texans | modelA New York Giants +9.5 @49¢priceB New York Giants +9.5 @49¢ | HOU -3.6 | HOU -9.5 | -5.9 | flat | HOU -9.5 @54¢ · NYG +9.5 @47¢ | 60% | 21–24 | 45 | 44 | +1.8 | ||
| Sun 10/25 10:00 AM | Cleveland Browns @ Tennessee Titans | — | CLE -0.8 | CLE -1.5 | +0.7 | flat | TEN +1.5 @51¢ · CLE -1.5 @51¢ | 48% | 21–20 | 41 | 38 | +2.6 | ||
| Sun 10/25 10:00 AM | Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets | — | NYJ -3.3 | NYJ -5.5 | -2.2 | flat | NYJ -5.5 @48¢ · MIA +5.5 @53¢ | 60% | 19–22 | 41 | 40 | +1.2 | ||
| Sun 10/25 10:00 AM | Indianapolis Colts @ Minnesota Vikings | priceB Indianapolis Colts +3.5 @41¢ | MIN -4.7 | MIN -5.5 | -0.8 | flat | MIN -5.5 @54¢ · IND +5.5 @47¢ | 63% | 21–26 | 46 | 42 | +4.9 | ||
| Sun 10/25 1:05 PM | Denver Broncos @ Arizona Cardinals | priceB Arizona Cardinals +6.5 @57¢ | DEN -3.4 | DEN -4.0 | +0.6 | flat | ARI +4.5 @52¢ · DEN -3.5 @54¢ | 40% | 25–22 | 47 | 44 | +3.4 | ||
| Sun 10/25 1:25 PM | Los Angeles Rams @ Las Vegas Raiders | modelA Las Vegas Raiders +5.5 @51¢ | LAR -0.5 | LAR -5.5 | +5.0 | flat | LV +5.5 @58¢ · LAR -5.5 @44¢ | 48% | 23–23 | 46 | 48 | -1.9 | ||
| Sun 10/25 5:20 PM | Kansas City Chiefs @ Seattle Seahawks | — | SEA -3.7 | SEA -1.5 | +2.2 | flat | SEA -1.5 @54¢ · KC +1.5 @47¢ | 61% | 19–23 | 42 | 42 | +0.3 | ||
Lines name the favorite (e.g. SEA -3.5 means Seattle favored by 3.5). Δ (home) is how many points more the model likes the home side than the market does; negative means it likes the road side more. Line move is our first captured Pinnacle line → the current one, and whether the market has drifted toward the model's side. Kalshi spread shows the closest ladder rung and ask price for each side to cover. Flags are logged plays with the line and price at the time they were flagged: model = our projection disagrees with the market line; price = a Kalshi rung priced better than the market line implies (its rung is deliberately off the line, so only its ask price moves). A = best play, B = lean (measured, not bet). "now" shows the current market line when it has moved since the flag — the edge a follower gets is the difference.
| Kick (PT) | Matchup | Flags | Final | Model line | Pinnacle line | Δ (home) | Line move | Kalshi spread (home · away) | Home win% | Model score | Model total | Pinnacle total | Δ total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saturday, October 17 · Week 8 · 48 games | ||||||||||||||
| Sat 10/17 9:00 AM | Pittsburgh Panthers @ Boston College Eagles | modelA Pittsburgh Panthers -6.5 @51¢ ✗ | 21–27 | Pittsburgh -13.5 | Pittsburgh -6.5 | -7.0 | flat | Boston College +6.5 @50¢ · Pittsburgh -6.5 @51¢ | 19% | 33–19 | 52 | 43 | +8.6 | |
| Sat 10/17 9:00 AM | Mississippi State Bulldogs @ LSU Tigers | modelB Mississippi State Bulldogs +16.5 @52¢ ✗priceA Mississippi State Bulldogs +10.5 @46¢ ✗ | 0–31 | LSU -10.9 | LSU -17.5 | -6.6 | LSU -11.5 → LSU -17.5 against | LSU -17.5 @50¢ · Mississippi State +17.5 @51¢ | 76% | 22–33 | 56 | 56 | -0.9 | |
| Sat 10/17 9:00 AM | Virginia Cavaliers @ SMU Mustangs | modelB Virginia Cavaliers +10.5 @55¢ ✓priceB Virginia Cavaliers +5.5 @38¢ ✗ | 13–23 | SMU -5.8 | SMU -10.0 | -4.2 | SMU -9.0 → SMU -10.0 against | SMU -9.5 @52¢ · Virginia +10.5 @54¢ | 64% | 23–29 | 52 | 52 | +0.5 | |
| Sat 10/17 9:00 AM | Florida Gators @ Texas Longhorns | modelB Texas Longhorns -9.5 @55¢ ✗priceB Florida Gators +9.5 @46¢ ✓ | 27–24 | Texas -15.0 | Texas -11.5 | +3.5 | Texas -10.0 → Texas -11.5 with us | Texas -11.5 @50¢ · Florida +11.5 @51¢ | 83% | 20–35 | 54 | 50 | +3.7 | |
| Sat 10/17 9:00 AM | Ohio State Buckeyes @ Indiana Hoosiers | — | 19–15 | Indiana -0.2 | Ohio State -3.0 | +3.2 | flat | — · — | 51% | 25–25 | 51 | 50 | +0.1 | |
| Sat 10/17 9:00 AM | Kansas Jayhawks @ Kansas State Wildcats | — | 24–35 | Kansas State -3.4 | Kansas State -3.5 | -0.1 | Kansas State -6.5 → Kansas State -3.5 with us | Kansas State -3.5 @49¢ · Kansas +3.5 @52¢ | 59% | 25–28 | 54 | 56 | -1.9 | |
| Sat 10/17 9:00 AM | Ball State Cardinals @ Bowling Green Falcons | — | 32–31 | Bowling Green -9.4 | Bowling Green -6.5 | +2.9 | flat | Bowling Green -6.5 @50¢ · Ball State +6.5 @51¢ | 73% | 20–29 | 49 | 46 | +2.7 | |
| Sat 10/17 9:00 AM | Cincinnati Bearcats @ West Virginia Mountaineers | — | 42–45 | Cincinnati -1.8 | West Virginia -1.5 | -3.3 | flat | West Virginia -1.5 @50¢ · Cincinnati +1.5 @51¢ | 45% | 30–28 | 58 | 64 | -5.4 | |
| Sat 10/17 9:00 AM | Florida Atlantic Owls @ Army Black Knights | — | 24–56 | Army -2.4 | Army -2.5 | -0.1 | flat | Army -2.5 @49¢ · Florida Atlantic +2.5 @52¢ | 56% | 26–28 | 54 | 56 | -1.5 | |
| Sat 10/17 9:00 AM | Georgia State Panthers @ James Madison Dukes | modelB James Madison Dukes -9.5 @50¢ ✓ | 22–49 | James Madison -13.8 | James Madison -9.5 | +4.2 | James Madison -13.0 → James Madison -9.5 against | James Madison -9.5 @50¢ · Georgia State +9.5 @51¢ | 81% | 20–34 | 54 | 58 | -4.1 | |
| Sat 10/17 9:00 AM | Northwestern Wildcats @ Michigan State Spartans | modelB Northwestern Wildcats -7.5 ✗ | 24–21 | Northwestern -14.5 | Northwestern -7.0 | -7.5 | Northwestern -7.5 → Northwestern -7.0 against | — · — | 18% | 32–17 | 49 | 50 | -0.8 | |
| Sat 10/17 9:30 AM | Rutgers Scarlet Knights @ Maryland Terrapins | priceB Rutgers Scarlet Knights +5.5 @48¢ ✓ | 37–30 | Maryland -6.9 | Maryland -6.0 | +0.9 | Maryland -4.5 → Maryland -6.0 with us | Maryland -5.5 @52¢ · Rutgers +6.5 @54¢ | 67% | 25–32 | 57 | 56 | +1.4 | |
| Sat 10/17 10:00 AM | Charlotte 49ers @ Temple Owls | — | 38–31 | Temple -24.3 | Temple -20.5 | +3.8 | Temple -21.5 → Temple -20.5 against | — · — | 94% | 14–38 | 52 | 46 | +5.8 | |
| Sat 10/17 10:30 AM | Western Michigan Broncos @ Central Michigan Chippewas | priceB Central Michigan Chippewas +5.5 @43¢ ✗ | 21–14 | Western Michigan -9.7 | Western Michigan -7.0 | -2.7 | Western Michigan -6.5 → Western Michigan -7.0 with us | Central Michigan +7.5 @54¢ · Western Michigan -6.5 @55¢ | 27% | 27–17 | 44 | 43 | +0.7 | |
| Sat 10/17 12:30 PM | Toledo Rockets @ Eastern Michigan Eagles | priceB Eastern Michigan Eagles +4.5 @45¢ ✗ | 34–14 | Toledo -6.1 | Toledo -7.0 | +0.9 | Toledo -5.0 → Toledo -7.0 against | Eastern Michigan +7.5 @54¢ · Toledo -6.5 @53¢ | 35% | 29–23 | 52 | 53 | -1.3 | |
| Sat 10/17 12:30 PM | Auburn Tigers @ Georgia Bulldogs | priceA Auburn Tigers +21.5 @55¢ ✓ | 27–24 | Georgia -21.8 | Georgia -20.0 | +1.8 | Georgia -18.5 → Georgia -20.0 with us | Georgia -18.5 @52¢ · Auburn +20.5 @53¢ | 92% | 14–36 | 51 | 50 | +1.1 | |
| Sat 10/17 12:30 PM | UNLV Rebels @ Air Force Falcons | modelB Air Force Falcons +1.5 @53¢ ✓ | 31–41 | Air Force -5.1 | UNLV -1.0 | +6.1 | Air Force -1.0 → UNLV -1.0 against | Air Force +1.5 @51¢ · UNLV -1.5 @50¢ | 63% | 24–29 | 53 | 48 | +5.0 | |
| Sat 10/17 12:30 PM | Missouri Tigers @ Ole Miss Rebels | modelA Missouri Tigers +6.5 @54¢ ✗ | 3–31 | Missouri -1.4 | Ole Miss -5.5 | -6.9 | Ole Miss -6.0 → Ole Miss -5.5 with us | Ole Miss -5.5 @50¢ · Missouri +5.5 @51¢ | 46% | 29–27 | 56 | 58 | -2.2 | |
| Sat 10/17 12:30 PM | Akron Zips @ Miami (OH) RedHawks | modelA Miami (OH) RedHawks -9.5 @52¢ ✓ | 14–34 | Miami (OH) -17.1 | Miami (OH) -9.5 | +7.6 | flat | Miami (OH) -9.5 @51¢ · Akron +9.5 @50¢ | 87% | 17–34 | 51 | 46 | +4.6 | |
| Sat 10/17 12:30 PM | Northern Illinois Huskies @ Wyoming Cowboys | priceA Northern Illinois Huskies +4.5 @36¢ ✗ | 23–41 | Wyoming -9.8 | Wyoming -7.5 | +2.3 | flat | Wyoming -7.5 @52¢ · Northern Illinois +7.5 @49¢ | 74% | 15–25 | 41 | 42 | -1.3 | |
| Sat 10/17 12:30 PM | Arizona State Sun Devils @ Texas Tech Red Raiders | modelB Texas Tech Red Raiders -14.5 ✓priceB Arizona State Sun Devils +13.5 @43¢ ✗ | 25–53 | Texas Tech -22.9 | Texas Tech -16.0 | +6.9 | Texas Tech -14.5 → Texas Tech -16.0 with us | Texas Tech -14.5 @54¢ · Arizona State +16.5 @51¢ | 93% | 14–37 | 52 | 50 | +1.9 | |
| Sat 10/17 12:30 PM | North Carolina Tar Heels @ Duke Blue Devils | — | 24–20 | Duke -3.0 | Duke -3.0 | -0.0 | Duke -3.5 → Duke -3.0 with us | Duke -2.5 @53¢ · North Carolina +3.5 @55¢ | 58% | 23–26 | 49 | 47 | +1.7 | |
| Sat 10/17 12:30 PM | Alabama Crimson Tide @ Tennessee Volunteers | priceA Tennessee Volunteers +6.5 @41¢ ✓ | 10–26 | Alabama -8.2 | Alabama -7.5 | -0.8 | flat | Tennessee +7.5 @50¢ · Alabama -7.5 @52¢ | 30% | 33–24 | 57 | 51 | +5.9 | |
| Sat 10/17 12:30 PM | Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets @ Virginia Tech Hokies | priceB Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets +6.5 @41¢ ✗ | 24–34 | Virginia Tech -11.4 | Virginia Tech -8.0 | +3.4 | Virginia Tech -9.5 → Virginia Tech -8.0 against | Virginia Tech -7.5 @53¢ · Georgia Tech +9.5 @52¢ | 77% | 21–33 | 54 | 56 | -1.9 | |
| Sat 10/17 12:30 PM | Penn State Nittany Lions @ Michigan Wolverines | modelB Penn State Nittany Lions +6.5 @55¢ ✓priceB Penn State Nittany Lions +5.5 @46¢ ✓ | 18–21 | Michigan -1.8 | Michigan -6.5 | -4.7 | Michigan -6.0 → Michigan -6.5 against | Michigan -6.5 @49¢ · Penn State +6.5 @52¢ | 55% | 23–24 | 47 | 42 | +4.3 | |
| Sat 10/17 1:30 PM | Tulsa Golden Hurricane @ Rice Owls | priceB Rice Owls +3.5 @47¢ ✗ | 38–17 | Tulsa -5.8 | Tulsa -4.5 | -1.3 | Tulsa -3.5 → Tulsa -4.5 with us | Rice +4.5 @51¢ · Tulsa -4.5 @50¢ | 35% | 28–23 | 51 | 46 | +5.0 | |
| Sat 10/17 2:00 PM | Troy Trojans @ Louisiana Ragin Cajuns | — | 6–33 | Louisiana Ragin -5.6 | Louisiana Ragin -3.0 | +2.6 | Louisiana Ragin -4.5 → Louisiana Ragin -3.0 against | — · — | 64% | 23–29 | 53 | 50 | +3.0 | |
| Sat 10/17 3:00 PM | Washington State Cougars @ Oregon State Beavers | modelB Oregon State Beavers -17.5 @54¢ ✓priceB Washington State Cougars +21.5 @57¢ ✓ | 30–48 | Oregon State -23.1 | Oregon State -18.5 | +4.6 | Oregon State -17.5 → Oregon State -18.5 with us | Oregon State -17.5 @53¢ · Washington State +17.5 @48¢ | 93% | 13–36 | 49 | 52 | -3.3 | |
| Sat 10/17 4:00 PM | Nevada Wolf Pack @ North Dakota State Bison | — | 17–31 | North Dakota State -14.3 | North Dakota State -14.5 | -0.2 | North Dakota State -16.5 → North Dakota State -14.5 with us | North Dakota State -14.5 @48¢ · Nevada +14.5 @53¢ | 82% | 17–31 | 48 | 43 | +5.2 | |
| Sat 10/17 4:00 PM | Florida State Seminoles @ Miami Hurricanes | — | 35–43 | Miami -23.8 | Miami -20.0 | +3.8 | Miami -20.5 → Miami -20.0 against | Miami -20.5 @52¢ · Florida State +20.5 @49¢ | 94% | 15–39 | 53 | 56 | -2.6 | |
| Sat 10/17 4:00 PM | Kent State Golden Flashes @ South Florida Bulls | modelB South Florida Bulls -20.5 @53¢ ✓ | 2–29 | South Florida -25.2 | South Florida -20.5 | +4.7 | South Florida -21.0 → South Florida -20.5 against | South Florida -20.5 @51¢ · Kent State +20.5 @50¢ | 95% | 13–38 | 50 | 45 | +5.4 | |
| Sat 10/17 4:00 PM | Arkansas Razorbacks @ Vanderbilt Commodores | — | 31–21 | Vanderbilt -3.1 | Vanderbilt -6.5 | -3.4 | flat | Vanderbilt -6.5 @49¢ · Arkansas +6.5 @52¢ | 58% | 27–30 | 58 | 50 | +7.1 | |
| Sat 10/17 4:00 PM | TCU Horned Frogs @ Baylor Bears | — | 17–6 | Baylor -8.4 | Baylor -6.0 | +2.4 | Baylor -5.5 → Baylor -6.0 with us | Baylor -5.5 @51¢ · TCU +6.5 @54¢ | 71% | 21–30 | 51 | 48 | +2.2 | |
| Sat 10/17 4:00 PM | Arkansas State Red Wolves @ Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles | — | 23–13 | Arkansas State -7.6 | Arkansas State -6.5 | -1.1 | Arkansas State -7.0 → Arkansas State -6.5 against | Southern Miss +6.5 @50¢ · Arkansas State -6.5 @51¢ | 31% | 32–24 | 57 | 62 | -5.9 | |
| Sat 10/17 4:30 PM | Wisconsin Badgers @ UCLA Bruins | modelB UCLA Bruins -3.0 ✓ | 7–17 | UCLA -7.4 | UCLA -2.5 | +4.9 | UCLA -3.0 → UCLA -2.5 against | UCLA -2.5 @50¢ · Wisconsin +2.5 @51¢ | 68% | 20–28 | 48 | 43 | +5.4 | |
| Sat 10/17 4:30 PM | Kentucky Wildcats @ Oklahoma Sooners | — | 21–13 | Oklahoma -5.8 | Oklahoma -6.5 | -0.7 | flat | Oklahoma -6.5 @51¢ · Kentucky +6.5 @50¢ | 65% | 22–27 | 49 | 44 | +5.5 | |
| Sat 10/17 4:30 PM | Oklahoma State Cowboys @ Houston Cougars | — | 32–35 | Houston -6.8 | Houston -4.5 | +2.3 | flat | Houston -4.5 @50¢ · Oklahoma State +4.5 @51¢ | 67% | 23–30 | 54 | 63 | -9.4 | |
| Sat 10/17 4:30 PM | Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ BYU Cougars | priceB BYU Cougars +9.5 @47¢ ✓ | 24–28 | Notre Dame -7.0 | Notre Dame -10.5 | +3.5 | Notre Dame -9.5 → Notre Dame -10.5 against | BYU +10.5 @50¢ · Notre Dame -10.5 @51¢ | 32% | 29–22 | 52 | 47 | +4.6 | |
| Sat 10/17 4:30 PM | Louisville Cardinals @ Syracuse Orange | modelB Syracuse Orange +14.5 @51¢ ✓priceB Syracuse Orange +13.5 @45¢ ✓ | 34–26 | Louisville -10.8 | Louisville -14.5 | +3.7 | Louisville -13.0 → Louisville -14.5 against | Syracuse +14.5 @50¢ · Louisville -14.5 @51¢ | 24% | 33–22 | 55 | 56 | -0.0 | |
| Sat 10/17 5:00 PM | Navy Midshipmen @ UTSA Roadrunners | priceB Navy Midshipmen +4.5 @42¢ ✓ | 34–38 | UTSA -5.5 | UTSA -6.5 | -1.0 | flat | UTSA -6.5 @53¢ · Navy +6.5 @48¢ | 64% | 25–31 | 56 | 55 | +0.9 | |
| Sat 10/17 5:00 PM | Louisiana Tech Bulldogs @ UL Monroe Warhawks | modelB Louisiana Tech Bulldogs -14.5 @51¢ ✓priceB UL Monroe Warhawks +13.5 @43¢ ✗ | 24–0 | Louisiana Tech -20.0 | Louisiana Tech -14.5 | -5.5 | flat | UL Monroe +14.5 @47¢ · Louisiana Tech -14.5 @54¢ | 10% | 38–18 | 57 | 56 | +0.5 | |
| Sat 10/17 6:00 PM | San Jose State Spartans @ UTEP Miners | modelB San Jose State Spartans -7.5 @49¢ ✓ | 24–11 | San José State -12.0 | San José State -7.0 | -5.0 | San José State -7.5 → San José State -7.0 against | UTEP +7.5 @55¢ · San José State -6.5 @55¢ | 22% | 31–20 | 51 | 46 | +5.5 | |
| Sat 10/17 7:00 PM | Ohio Bobcats @ Sacramento State Hornets | — | 48–7 | Ohio -17.7 | Ohio -14.5 | -3.2 | flat | Sacramento State +14.5 @48¢ · Ohio -14.5 @53¢ | 13% | 32–15 | 47 | 48 | -0.5 | |
| Sat 10/17 7:15 PM | Utah Utes @ Colorado Buffaloes | modelB Utah Utes -14.5 ✗ | 27–24 | Utah -23.6 | Utah -14.5 | -9.1 | flat | Colorado +14.5 @51¢ · Utah -14.5 @50¢ | 6% | 37–13 | 50 | 49 | +0.6 | |
| Sat 10/17 7:30 PM | Fresno State Bulldogs @ San Diego State Aztecs | modelB Fresno State Bulldogs -6.5 @57¢ ✗priceB San Diego State Aztecs +7.5 @51¢ ✓ | 23–26 | Fresno State -12.3 | Fresno State -7.5 | -4.8 | Fresno State -7.0 → Fresno State -7.5 with us | San Diego State +7.5 @52¢ · Fresno State -7.5 @49¢ | 21% | 30–17 | 47 | 46 | +1.1 | |
| Sat 10/17 7:30 PM | Wake Forest Demon Deacons @ California Golden Bears | — | 41–7 | Wake Forest -12.7 | Wake Forest -10.0 | -2.7 | flat | California +10.5 @53¢ · Wake Forest -9.5 @53¢ | 21% | 33–20 | 53 | 54 | -0.5 | |
| Sat 10/17 7:30 PM | New Mexico Lobos @ Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | modelB New Mexico Lobos -14.0 ✗ | 21–10 | New Mexico -25.9 | New Mexico -14.5 | -11.4 | New Mexico -14.0 → New Mexico -14.5 with us | Hawai'i +14.5 @51¢ · New Mexico -14.5 @50¢ | 5% | 37–11 | 49 | 44 | +4.1 | |
| Sat 10/17 8:00 PM | Nebraska Cornhuskers @ Oregon Ducks | modelB Nebraska Cornhuskers +7.5 @52¢ ✓priceB Nebraska Cornhuskers +4.5 @40¢ ✓ | 14–17 | Oregon -3.4 | Oregon -7.0 | -3.6 | flat | Oregon -6.5 @52¢ · Nebraska +7.5 @56¢ | 59% | 25–29 | 54 | 52 | +2.7 | |
Lines name the favorite (e.g. SEA -3.5 means Seattle favored by 3.5). Δ (home) is how many points more the model likes the home side than the market does; negative means it likes the road side more. Line move is our first captured Pinnacle line → the current one, and whether the market has drifted toward the model's side. Kalshi spread shows the closest ladder rung and ask price for each side to cover. Flags are logged plays with the line and price at the time they were flagged: model = our projection disagrees with the market line; price = a Kalshi rung priced better than the market line implies (its rung is deliberately off the line, so only its ask price moves). A = best play, B = lean (measured, not bet). "now" shows the current market line when it has moved since the flag — the edge a follower gets is the difference.